Nigeria Leads in Small-Scale Solar, But Investment Keeps Flowing to Off-Grid Instead of National Grid

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Nigeria is now sub-Saharan Africa’s fastest-growing market for small-scale solar, but the growth is happening almost entirely outside the national grid.

According to the reports that is reviewed by the media team of Commissioner for Power and Renewable Energy, Honourable Suleiman Umar, there is rapid expansion of solar power and mini-grids across Nigeria, while utility-scale projects connected to the national grid remain limited. The assessment notes that households and businesses are driving adoption, even as the country struggles to translate the boom into stronger grid supply.

According to the “Sub-Saharan Africa Renewable Energy Market Outlook”, the shift is driven by unreliable grid electricity and rising diesel and petrol costs, pushing businesses and homes to rooftop solar and battery systems.

Small-scale solar is driving growth
The reports estimate Nigeria added 3.1GW of small-scale solar in 2024 and 2025, bringing total installed capacity to about 6GW. Projections show this could rise to 87GW by 2035, with annual additions growing from 2.4GW in 2026 to 7.8GW in 2030 and 16.2GW in 2035.

Key drivers include: persistent grid collapses, high cost of fuel for generators, and strong demand for reliable power. 
The trend reflects a shift from backup petrol generators to “solar-plus-storage” systems — a pattern similar to Pakistan.

Between 2025 and April 2026, Nigeria imported about 2,370MW worth of clean energy equipment solar panels, batteries and related technologies making it the region’s second-largest importer after South Africa.

Utility-scale projects remain limited
Despite the boom, only two major grid-connected solar projects were commissioned between 2020 and 2025: a 70MW hydropower-linked project in Zungeru and a 10MW plant in Kumbotso.

Unlike countries using competitive auctions and clear procurement frameworks, Nigeria has relied on isolated projects. With “little clarity on the timing of future tenders,” developers cannot plan long-term, and Nigeria recorded virtually no utility-scale renewable capacity financed in the period.

How Nigeria compares in the region
The reports profiled 16 sub-Saharan markets. Of the five largest clean energy importers since 2025 South Africa, Nigeria, DRC, Zambia and Kenya only South Africa, DRC and Zambia have meaningful utility-scale pipelines.

South Africa still leads in large-scale deployment, projected to add an average of 4.67GW of renewables annually between 2025 and 2030, driven largely by corporate power purchase agreements. 
Across sub-Saharan Africa, 13GW of solar, wind and battery capacity was installed in 2025, expected to double to 29GW by 2030.

What it means for Nigeria
The reports conclude that economics, not just climate policy, are driving adoption as solar becomes cheaper than running generators.

But without reforms to Nigeria’s electricity procurement system, investment will keep flowing into off-grid and mini-grid solutions instead of large plants that can strengthen the national grid.

However, there is hope for select states. Niger State, Lagos and a few others may benefit early from major grid-scale projects expected soon through IsDB, ECOWAS, World Bank, and REA-federal government initiatives on renewable solar energy for sustainable development. These projects are projected to take off soon and could help boost the national grid and attract more funding into the sector.


A.B Makama
Media Strategist To Honourable Commissioner For Power and Renewable Energy


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